Before becoming a coach, I spent most of my career as a Finance executive in financial services. The world was very different then – yes, there was uncertainty at times and we had to respond to events and deal with change but the world moved more slowly. We could prepare budgets and create plans with some level of certainty.
As a coach, I’ve noticed how this has changed drastically – I’ve had clients dealing with catastrophic cyber-attacks, the fast-moving impact of AI and of course, the volatility and uncertainty arising from a certain US President.
As a result, whilst the old leadership approaches of coming up with a prefect strategy and managing through ‘predict and control’ have their place, leaders increasingly need to adopt a more agile approach of ‘sense and respond’ and ‘continuous adaptation’.
One tried and tested model to build leadership agility for fast moving, uncertain and volatile conditions that I find resonates well with leaders is the ‘OODA loop’. Originally developed by John Boyd, a US a airforce colonel to outfox the enemy in combat situations, it has proven to be equally effective in the business context. His core idea being that the side that cycles through OODA faster and more accurately wins, or in business terms, faster loops mean quicker adaptation and lead to strategic advantage.
In contrast to the PDCA (Plan, Do, Check, Act) cycle which requires early commitment and controlled actions in a more stable environment, the OODA loop is based on the continuous collection of feedback and observations to drive quick decisions and action.
Leaders adopting the OODA loop approach accept that hesitation is often worse than being slightly wrong and take the following steps in a continuous cycle:
- Observe: Rapidly gather signals (eg market movements, customer sentiment)
- Orientate: Make sense of incomplete information using experience and context, consciously taking account of biases and assumptions.
- Decide: Make a decision
- Act: Move quickly, knowing you can adjust later when you go back through the cycle
In essence, leaders become comfortable acting with 70% clarity instead of 100% certainty. Instead of over-analysis and paralysis in ambiguity, OODA reframes decisions as iterations so that you are not committing to a final answer but instead committing to the next best move. Every action produces new data which feeds the next cycle so that mistakes are seen as inputs rather than failures or as I like to say, not a failure but a First Attempt At Learning (F.A.I.L).
Of course, in a corporate setting with strong governance and risk oversight, maintaining control in uncertainty is key but the challenge is doing this without becoming slow. That’s where the OODA loop can be very helpful – adding agility within governance. Quarterly board reports and monthly ExCo packs remain important but are complemented with faster information gathering such as feedback loops and competitor intelligence (Observe), strong, decisive leadership that challenges assumptions and mental models (Orientate) and leaders that aren’t afraid to make decisions and act quickly (Decide & Act).
In summary, effective leadership in uncertainty requires leaders to make the mindset shift from “Bring me a fully considered recommendation next quarter” to “Bring me information and observations quickly, test options, and learn fast.” That mindset shift is usually harder than changing the process as human nature means that we tend to default to tried and tested methods or habits. This is where coaching can have a huge impact – challenging your thoughts, helping you to reframe the situation and holding you to account so that you build the agility to adapt your approach to the situation.
